je.st
news
Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-08-08 10:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080843 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 AN EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF HENRIETTE IS SHRINKING. THE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO SHRUNK BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.2 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO THE WINDS ARE BEING HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING APPEARS IMMINENT NOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING OVER WATER THAT IS COLDER THAN 26C AND IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AND IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5 WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. HENRIETTE IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFT AND HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8 KT. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TURN THE HURRICANE WESTWARD WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THEN...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 17.2N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 17.4N 138.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.3N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.8N 142.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 15.3N 150.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 14.0N 157.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||