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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-08-08 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081432 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. ENHANCE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50 DEG C. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL PREDICTION AND NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. CENTER FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE MOTION IS NOW WESTWARD OR 280 AT 9 KT. A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO TURN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 17.3N 139.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.0N 141.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.5N 143.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 14.0N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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