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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2013-08-08 22:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 082037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15 HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE 09/0600 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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