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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2013-08-09 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A FASTER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 3 AND 4 THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE LATEST TCVE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PASSES FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B AT 1832Z AND 1926Z...RESPECTIVELY... INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF HENRIETTE IS QUITE SMALL. BASED ON THESE DATA THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT HENRIETTE HAS CROSSED 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA33 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.0N 144.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 15.0N 149.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 13.5N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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