je.st
news
Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-07-24 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 241443 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Satellite images indicate that Hilary has a small central core of convection, with both the visible and infrared channels suggesting that an eye is trying to form. Microwave data also show an incomplete eyewall, though the system is so small that most sensors don't have the necessary resolution to really see the center. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a bit above the satellite fixes given the recent upward organization trend. Interestingly, despite the hurricane having intensified about 30 kt in the past 24 hours, model guidance this morning really backed off on the future strengthening of Hilary, with most guidance no longer showing it becoming a major hurricane. It is difficult to believe the new model runs because the environment seems similarly favorable for at least the next day or so, with perhaps some increase in northerly shear in about 48 hours. For now, the latest NHC forecast is reduced just a little bit beyond 24 hours, owing to the possible increase in shear, but still lies at or above all of the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 295/7. A ridge that extends into the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should steer Hilary a bit faster to the west-northwest during that time. The long-range forecast is a mess with the likelihood of some binary interaction with TS Irwin, leading to a large model spread by day 5. Dynamical guidance has been trending toward more interaction, although the GFS/HMON models are well off to the northeast of the rest of the guidance. The NHC prediction is close to the previous one, putting a little more weight on the binary interaction solutions, which results in a small westward shift of the forecast at long range. Obviously this type of forecast has large uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||