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Hurricane HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-09-11 22:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 112040 TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE EYE...ALTHOUGH RAGGED AND INTERMITTENT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KNOTS. HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE HUMBERTO TO MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 18.0N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 19.5N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.3N 29.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 22.8N 30.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 24.0N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 25.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 27.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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