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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-08-26 10:55:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Harvey's eye has moved inland gradually during the past few hours, and maximum winds have decreased significantly since landfall. Radar velocity data from the Corpus Christi NOAA Doppler radar are showing winds as high as 90 kt at an elevation of 3000-3500 ft in the northwestern eyewall. The advisory intensity is therefore set at 85 kt, which could still be a little generous. Continued weakening is expected as Harvey's eye continues to move inland, and maximum sustained winds are likely to fall below hurricane force later today. A more gradual weakening trend is anticipated after that point, and Harvey is forecast to maintain tropical storm strength at least through day 4, especially if part of its circulation remains over water. The updated NHC intensity forecast continues a similar weakening trend noted in previous advisories and is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). The initial motion has continued to decrease, and it is now estimated to be 325/5 kt. As the steering currents around Harvey continue to collapse, the cyclone is expected to stall or meander inland over southeastern Texas. Only a few models show any sort of definitive northeastward motion at the end of the forecast period, and for the most part, the most reliable models keep Harvey over southeastern Texas through day 5. The NHC track forecast depicts Harvey taking a slow counterclockwise loop just inland from the coast. This track is expected to exacerbate the potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is moving farther inland over southeastern Texas and continues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could still reach heights of 6 to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for several days. 3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 28.5N 97.2W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 12H 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0600Z 29.0N 97.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0600Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0600Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/0600Z 30.0N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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