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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2024-09-26 04:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 260254 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 11(11) 24(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ATLANTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 71(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 9( 9) 19(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 50(50) 15(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 47(47) 30(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 53(53) 11(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 51(51) 12(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 84(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 44(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) THE VILLAGES 34 2 76(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) THE VILLAGES 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 1 49(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 41(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PATRICK AFB 34 X 41(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 29(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) W PALM BEACH 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 34 27 16(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NAPLES FL 34 21 37(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FT MYERS FL 34 8 47(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) VENICE FL 34 26 56(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) VENICE FL 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 13 72(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) TAMPA FL 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPA FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 7 88(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 41(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 93(94) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 43(43) 41(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 9( 9) 44(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ST MARKS FL 34 2 95(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 X 62(62) 22(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ST MARKS FL 64 X 25(25) 31(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) APALACHICOLA 34 7 90(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) APALACHICOLA 50 X 81(81) 5(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) APALACHICOLA 64 X 44(44) 10(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 290N 850W 34 11 88(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 92(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 67(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) PANAMA CITY FL 34 5 80(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 40(40) 12(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 30(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X 54(54) 42(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ALBANY GA 50 X 3( 3) 62(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 9( 9) 77(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MACON GA 34 X 8( 8) 80(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MACON GA 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) DOTHAN AL 34 X 48(48) 36(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) DOTHAN AL 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 10(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 34 8 37(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLE OF PINES 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-26 04:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGES TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 the center of Helene was located near 23.1, -86.6 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 11
2024-09-26 04:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGES TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 86.6W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet * Lake Okeechobee * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The minimum central pressure reported by Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida tonight and will spread northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area in western Cuba during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of Florida. The risk for tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics