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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021434 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The satellite presentation of Hilda hasn't changed much in the past several hours, with a round central dense overcast and perhaps a ragged eye trying to form. The intensity estimates range from 60-77 kt, and since the hurricane's presentation is about the same as the last advisory, the current wind speed will remain 70 kt. This is one of those times that in situ reconnaissance data would be helpful since there has been lots of spread in the intensity estimates for quite some time, and Hilda is at an intensity where it is hard to get more precise measurements. The hurricane has finally turned northwestward and should continue in that general direction for the next couple of days on the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, with some influence from Ignacio to the northeast. Model guidance is in decent agreement that Hilda will turn back to the west-northwest by midweek and then west under the restrengthened subtropical ridge. While there are still some outlier solutions, the latest consensus guidance is near the previous NHC forecast, so only small changes were made on this advisory. Hilda is maintaining good inner-core structure on the latest microwave data despite northeasterly shear (perhaps because of a fairly moist mid-level environment around the hurricane), so little intensity change is forecast for today. Thereafter, the system should move over cooler waters into a drier environment, which should cause gradual weakening for the next several days. Very little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, and it is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids throughout. Remnant-low status is expected by 96 h, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.4N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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