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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-15 04:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150244 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING INGRID THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE NOAA P-3 REPORTED SEVERAL SFMR WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE AFTER CORRECTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF RAIN...AND DATA FROM TWO DROPSONDES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB IS BASED ON A DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND THAT VALUE HAS RISEN A BIT SINCE 00Z. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN EXPANDING CDO FEATURE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL...WHICH WAS ALSO NOTED BY PERSONNEL ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT. INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS. AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT INGRID IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/07. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS CYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL LANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 22.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 22.4N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 22.7N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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