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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-04 10:54:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040853 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no outer banding around a symmetric inner core. Satellite classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 110 kt. Little change in intensity is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the hurricane. Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday, which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the weakening process. The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable environment described above. Iselle is moving westward at roughly 8 kt. This general motion should continue for a day or so with some acceleration after that time due to a restrengthening of a ridge over the central Pacific. Iselle should move more to the west-northwest in a few days due to the cyclone moving around the southwestern portion of the ridge. Model guidance has not changed much during the past 6 hours, and the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous forecast and the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.0N 135.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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