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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-02 10:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020859 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 Satellite images indicate that Iselle continues to become better organized during the past several hours with a ragged eye feature present on the shortwave infrared channel. Microwave data also show that the inner core has become better defined on the last SSMI/S pass. There is quite a disparity, however, of current satellite intensity estimates, ranging from 55 to 90 kt. Since the cyclone appears somewhat better organized than 6 hours ago, the wind speed is raised to 70 kt, but this estimate is more uncertain than average. Iselle has turned westward and appears to be moving 280/9, although recently has wobbled due westward. The subtropical ridge to the northwest of the cyclone should remain firm for the next several days, continuing the general westward motion. There has been a notable southward shift to most of the guidance overnight with less influence now expected from a digging trough along 130W in a couple of days. The ridge is expected to strengthen at long range, causing a faster westward motion at that time. The new NHC track forecast is shifted southward at all times, especially at Day 3 and beyond, close to the model consensus. Although Iselle has good inner core structure, a combination of moderate northeasterly shear and decreasing SSTs is expected to limit the chance for significant strengthening over the next couple of days. However, the overall environment is not that unfavorable, so little change in wind speed is forecast through 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will likely encounter drier air aloft, marginal SSTs and more significant shear by Day 5, which should cause weakening. The new forecast is kept very similar to the previous forecast, which lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 128.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 133.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.0N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.5N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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