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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-10-01 10:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 010843 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 8(35) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 4(34) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 5(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 7(36) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 23(49) 4(53) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 2(23) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 20(43) 3(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 2(31) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 2(22) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 7( 8) 22(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) 1(37) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 2 11(13) 15(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) ANDROS 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 46 41(87) 10(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GREAT EXUMA 50 3 40(43) 22(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GREAT EXUMA 64 1 21(22) 18(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 18 29(47) 29(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAN SALVADOR 64 4 18(22) 27(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 13 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MAYAGUANA 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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