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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-07 04:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070252 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Julio has strengthened during the last several hours. The eye of the hurricane, which is quite distinct in microwave images, has recently become apparent in infrared satellite images. In addition, the convective pattern is more symmetric about the center than it was earlier today. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures of about 27 C, and in an atmosphere of low shear and relatively high moisture. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible during the overnight hours. After that time, however, Julio is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and should remain over 25-26 C water for the next few days. These cool waters combined with a drier air mass should cause the system to slowly weaken. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 290/14. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Julio is expected to keep the system moving westward to west-northwestward for the next few days. Beyond that time, the models are in fairly good agreement in showing a break in the ridge developing due to a large trough moving eastward over the north Pacific. This change in the steering pattern should cause Julio to turn more toward the northwest in 4 to 5 days. The track guidance has changed little this cycle, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Based on the latest forecast, Julio will be near or to the north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 133.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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