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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-07 22:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072045 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours. The eye has become a little better defined in visible imagery. However, the temperature and symmetry of the eyewall cloud tops are about the same as they were 6 hours ago. Satellite intensity estimates remain 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB. In addition, UW-CIMSS ADT/SATCON estimates are near 100 kt, and there was a recent AMSU intensity estimate of 98 kt. The initial intensity remains at a possibly conservative 90 kt. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is now 280/15. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward path. During the first 72 hours, the track guidance remains tightly clustered near the new forecast track with the notable exception of the outlier GFDL model, which still forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should turn more westward. However, there is still some spread in the guidance, with the UKMET forecasting a continued west-northwestward motion and the ECMWF forecasting a turn toward the west-southwest. The multi-model consensus lies near the previous forecast track, so the new track is just an update of the previous advisory. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Julio. The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. The intensity guidance is in excellent agreement in showing a gradual weakening during that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The agreement breaks down after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During that period, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Julio to be a moderate strength tropical storm, while the GFDL/HWRF models forecast it to be a hurricane. In addition, the large-scale models have some disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part of the forecast is still a compromise between the two model camps, and the new forecast lies close to the intensity consensus. It is possible that Julio could get a little stronger than forecast during the next 6-12 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.1N 137.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.5N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.1N 143.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 18.8N 146.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 148.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 24.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 163.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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