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Hurricane John Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-09-24 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240231 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 98.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane John Graphics
2024-09-24 01:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 23:49:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 6A
2024-09-24 01:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232348 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 98.6W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (15 km/h). A slow motion to the north or north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible over the next few hours and John could become a major hurricane before making landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are imminent within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the warning area. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics