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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-03 16:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify, with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more symmetric cloud pattern. The center of the eye moved just southwest of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory. Some further strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures. Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt. A large ridge over the southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time. Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns westward. The new NHC track prediction is very close to the previous one through 72 h. There's been a subtle westward model shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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