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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-03 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the northeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a downhill trend. This is supported by gradually cooling waters during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific north of 20N. Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times. The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed, now 295/6 kt. There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it up due to the ridge building to the north. The only minor change to report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models, similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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