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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-04 04:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040234 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 A recent AMSR2-GW1 microwave pass showed that Juliette's eyewall had collapsed in the southwestern quadrant. Curved banding features in that portion of the cyclone's cloud pattern have become fragmented as well. Subsequently, it appears that Juliette is on the decline, and both subjective and objective T-numbers support this recent trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and continue through the entire forecast period. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States should steer Juliette west-northwestward through the next several days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track, and lies between the NOAA HFIP HCCA and TVCE simple multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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