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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-04 10:47:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also continue to show gradual weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind radii for this advisory. The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous 12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston
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