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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-04 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Juliette continues to exhibit a large, ragged eye in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, but there are some breaks in the convective banding. Warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern portion of the circulation has also been observed. Recent microwave data show that the low-level eye remains fairly well defined, and that the center was located a little south of the previous estimates. The initial intensity remains 85 kt, which is a blend of the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates. Although the vertical shear is forecast to remain quite low during the next several days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should result in gradual weakening during the next several days, and Juliette is now forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 295/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should continue to steer Juliette west- northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward as it weakens and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The farther south initial position required a slight southward adjustment of the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion remains similar to the previous official forecast. The track guidance is tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is near middle of the envelope. The wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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