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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-05 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images, however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a 70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3. Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or 305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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