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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-06 04:50:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060249 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around 25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at 75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids. Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion during that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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