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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 44
2014-08-23 22:47:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 232047 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and deep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the cyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate, suggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be occurring. The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in total precipitable water imagery. The influence of these unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to remnant low status in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. Karina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is 055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing Karina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease in forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger circulation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days. However, there is still some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell, which would result in a west-northwestward motion. Since most of the track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone becoming stationary at days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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