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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-11-11 10:06:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110906 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in conventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the center in an area of strong convection. However, a just received AMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become better defined near the center. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to a hurricane. The initial motion is 055/35. Kate is now embedded in the westerlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near New England. The tropical cyclone should continue a general east-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next several days. However, a decrease in forward speed and some erratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts with, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low. Despite the complexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent agreement with only a small spread in direction and speed. The new forecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should prevent any additional intensification. Kate should begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it by 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low. The resulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 36.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 38.1N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.8N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 42.3N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 42.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 46.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 54.0N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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