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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-11-11 15:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111435 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 An SSMIS microwave image from a few hours ago indicated that Kate is well organized, with a large eye feature and a curved band that almost completely surrounds it. During the past few hours, however, the cloud tops have been warming, likely due to its passage over decreasing SSTs. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The vertical wind shear is increasing over Kate, and it is expected to be in excess of 40 kt later today. In addition, a strong mid-latitude trough is approaching the cyclone. Based on these expected conditions, it appears likely that Kate will transition to an extratropical cyclone tonight or early Thursday. After the transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic forcing. Kate is racing east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is a speedy 065/39 kt. The hurricane is expected to slow down later today and move erratically northeastward to east- northeastward during the next couple of days when it interacts with, and ultimately absorbs, an extratropical low to its west. A faster northeastward motion is predicted by the weekend after the merger of the weather systems. The new track forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded based on recent scatterometer data. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 36.8N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 39.0N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 41.1N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0000Z 41.8N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 42.4N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z 48.5N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1200Z 56.1N 16.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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