je.st
news
Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-08-20 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth has been strengthening rapidly during the last several hours. An eye has appeared in geostationary satellite images and deep convection has been increasing in intensity, especially to the east of the center. The latest Dvorak classifications have increased, and an average of the intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial wind speed to 80 kt. The hurricane is still not gaining much latitude, and the initial motion is 280/11 kt, which is a little slower than before. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected on Monday as the hurricane moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, Kenneth is expected to move north-northwestward and slow down even more as it moves into a break in the ridge caused by a cut off low near the California coast. The track models have shifted a little to the east beyond 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. Kenneth has already intensified more than expected, and it still has about another 24 hours in favorable environmental conditions. Therefore, additional strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, in best agreement with the HCCA model. Beyond 24 hours, Kenneth is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions combined with an increase in southerly shear beginning in about 72 hours should cause a steady weakening trend. Kenneth is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, when it will be over SSTs near 23 deg C and in wind shear conditions of nearly 30 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.2N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.0N 129.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 21.0N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 24.5N 135.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 27.0N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1800Z 28.7N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
kenneth
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||