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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-08-21 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Satellite images suggest that Kenneth is gradually weakening. Although the eye remains fairly distinct, the convection in the eyewall is not quite as deep as it was earlier today. An average of the latest final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed a little, to 105 kt. Kenneth is now moving northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward on Tuesday when it moves into a pronounced break in the ridge and it should continue in that general direction for the remainder of the forecast period. The models are in good agreement, and little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is nearing the 26 deg C isotherm, and it is expected to cross into those cooler waters by tonight. Cool waters, stable air, and an increase in southerly wind shear should cause steady or even rapid weakening of the system during the next few days. Kenneth is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or sooner, when it will be over SSTs below 23 deg C and in an environment of more than 30 kt of shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and it is in best agreement with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.3N 131.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.2N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.0N 134.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 27.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1800Z 31.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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