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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-08-22 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220837 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth is quickly weakening this morning. Recent microwave images show that the inner-core structure has eroded and that the low-level center is displaced to the southwest of the mid-level center due to moderate southwesterly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, which is a blend of the various final T- and CI-numbers. The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly weaken during the next day or so while it moves over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. Kenneth should weaken to a tropical storm later today, and become post-tropical in 2-3 days, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, but is a little lower than the statistical guidance and the previous advisory. Kenneth is moving northwestward or 325/9 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northwestward today between a mid-level ridge to its east and a cut-off low to the west. As Kenneth weakens, it is predicted to slow down and turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The track models are in excellent agreement through 48-72 hours, but diverge somewhat after Kenneth weakens and becomes post-tropical. The official track forecast is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus and is not much different than the previous NHC advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted slightly inward based on a couple of recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 20.0N 132.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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