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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-16 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160839 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100 kt. Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward, and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to persist for the next 24 hours or so. The shear should subside between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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