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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-16 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye feature. While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of northeasterly shear. Intensity estimates are lower than this morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt. Weakening is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues. The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes. This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to resume at long range. To account for this scenario, the new forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a more significant increase in winds. Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid- level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west- southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the central Pacific. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west- northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting the south-of-west motion as early as tonight. Thus the new forecast is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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