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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-17 16:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Kiko continues to have an irregular shape on satellite imagery, with most of the convection near the center and in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Still, overnight microwave data indicate that the hurricane still has a central core, and the latest satellite estimates support Kiko remaining a 65-kt cyclone on this advisory. Kiko has turned toward the west-southwest this morning due to increased ridging extending from the central Pacific. The synoptic pattern is rather changeable near the tropical cyclone, with a sinuous track anticipated during the next several days due to fluctuations in strength of the subtropical ridge. The forecast has been shifted southward at most times, since the GFS-based guidance has trended toward the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. However, the NHC track is on the northern side of the guidance envelope. The shear that has been affecting Kiko is forecast to relent later today, which should put an end to the weakening trend. By late Wednesday, the cyclone could begin to re-strengthen due to the relaxation of the shear while the storm is over warmer waters. At long range, shear is forecast to increase in about 4 days, causing weakening around that time, although there's little agreement on whether that shear will last. The model guidance is higher at most forecast times than the last cycle, which makes some sense given the southerly adjustment to the track forecast. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward, but is below the corrected consensus guidance at most times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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