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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 22
2024-10-04 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Kirk has changed little in structure during the past several hours and remains an impressive hurricane with a well-defined eye inside a central dense overcast. There has been no recent microwave imagery to determine if the apparent outer eyewall seen earlier is still there. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are mostly near 115 kt, so the initial intensity for this advisory is set at that. The initial motion is now 325/10. Kirk is currently approaching a large break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered near 33N 61W. During the next 48 h, the hurricane should recurve through this break and accelerate northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance more or less is the same as seen in the previous advisory, with the exception of a southward nudge near 96 h. The new forecast track also has this nudge, but is otherwise little changed from the previous track. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 h due to the possible eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast again follows the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the GFS model forecast during the extratropical stage. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 23.7N 49.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 23.7, -49.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 22
2024-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042045 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 49.4W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1645 MI...2650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 49.4 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics