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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 27
2024-10-06 04:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060244 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical wind shear. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant is wrapping in more dry air. Dvorak estimates have decreased this cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the TAFB estimate of 102 kt. The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance remains tightly clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus aids. Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less conducive in the coming days. Vertical wind shear should become quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm Sunday evening. Global models predict Kirk to become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern Europe. The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these changes. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 34.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 40.7N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 42.8N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z 43.7N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 44.1N 15.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.5N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2024-10-06 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 060244 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-06 04:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 31.3, -49.3 with movement N at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics