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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-02 22:47:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 20:47:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 21:23:08 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-10-02 22:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions. All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter, inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual weakening, as shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just beyond day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-10-02 22:45:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022045 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The lastest visible satellite imagery shows the center of the depression as a tight swirl of low-level clouds near patches of strong, but somewhat disorganized, convection. The remnant vorticity of the 97E disturbance, also a swirl of low clouds, was seen earlier to the southeast of the depression center. A recent ASCAT overpass shows a small wind core matching the tight cloud swirl with maximum winds of about 30 kt in the northwest quadrant, and based mainly on this the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast remains low confidence. The depression is currently undergoing a binary interaction with the EP97 disturbance, which has resulted in a southwestward motion during the past several hours. The models still have somewhat diverse solutions for the subsequent track, although the ECMWF has now joined the GFS and Canadian in forecasting a northward motion. However, the UKMET still forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore of the Mexican coast. An additional complication is that some of the guidance suggests the center could move eastward before beginning the northward motion. The new forecast track again has significant changes from the previous track to follow the northward motion scenario, bringing the center to the coast of Mexico between 36-48 h. However, it does not currently show any eastward motion before the northward motion, and more changes may be necessary in later advisories if the track guidance warrants. There is no change to either the intensity forecast philosophy or the intensity forecast. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics