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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-17 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 844 WTPZ44 KNHC 170834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane continues to gradually strengthen. Recent microwave images show a well-defined low-level eye, but this feature is not yet apparent in geostationary satellite images. The latest satellite images show an organized central dense overcast, but convection has decreased in the outer bands. An average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 70 kt. The environmental factors suggest that continued steady or rapid strengthening is likely during the next couple of days. However, there could be some intrusions of dry air that might interrupt the rate of strengthening. Nonetheless, it seems likely that Lane will become a major hurricane within the next couple of days. By the end of the forecast period, the environment looks a little less ideal with drier air and an increase in shear likely causing slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it remains at the high end of the model guidance. After wobbling to the north late yesterday, Lane has resumed a more westward motion at 14 kt. The hurricane is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. There is some north-south spread amongst the models with the UKMET on the southern side of the guidance and the GFS and HWRF on the northern side. This spread appears to be associated with how much influence a mid- to upper-level low off the Baja California coast has on Lane's steering flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, favoring the various consensus models, and is slightly to the left of the previous forecast track. Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 36 to 48 hours. The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted outward based on a 0544 UTC ASCAT-B pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 11.4N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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