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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-17 17:26:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 190 WTPZ44 KNHC 171525 CCA TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane's cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification. A warming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-15/16 IR BD-curve enhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C wraps about 90% around the cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective analysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this advisory. Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs, and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this scenario. The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the statistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36 hours. Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little less conducive and the large-scale models as well as the statistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly vertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend. The official forecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is close to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining portion of the forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt. Lane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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