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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-08-27 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 763 WTNT43 KNHC 270842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, around 0600 UTC (1 am CDT) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt, which is near the high end of category 4 status. At the time of landfall, Laura was a ferocious looking hurricane with a clear circular eye, an intense eyewall, and tightly-coiled surrounding spiral bands. Since the powerful hurricane has been inland for a few hours, there has been some decrease in winds, and the estimated initial wind speed based on Doppler radar data, surface observations, and guidance from an inland decay model is 105 kt. The hurricane is now moving northward with the initial motion estimated to be 355/13 kt. Laura is expected to continue moving northward through tonight, which should take the core of the system across Louisiana and Arkansas. After that, Laura will likely become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the much weaker cyclone is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward across the southeast U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday and Saturday. By late in the weekend and early next week, Laura, or its extratropical remnants, should accelerate northeastward across the western Atlantic. Now that Laura is inland, rapid weakening is forecast and it will likely become a tropical storm later today and a tropical depression on Friday. It should be noted that strong hurricanes like Laura are not just coastal events. Even though Laura's highest winds will decrease quickly as it treks inland, significant impacts from heavy rains and strong wind gusts are likely through at least tonight across portions of Louisiana and Arkansas. Some strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected when the storm moves over the Atlantic waters late this weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. 2. Hurricane-force winds will continue this morning in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected near Laura's eyewall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will continue to spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana through the day. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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