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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 21
2024-10-07 16:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071443 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Graphics
2024-10-07 16:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:43:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:43:36 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 33
2024-10-07 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 365 WTNT42 KNHC 071441 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that Kirk has completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory. Kirk is expected to remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves east-northeastward across the northeastern Atlantic Ocean toward western Europe. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the intensity forecast best matches the GFS and ECMWF global models. Very little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. The track forecast is near the consensus models. Kirk will be passing north of the Azores over the next 24 hours. Large breaking waves are likely along portions of the coasts of the Azores, along with gusty winds. Swells from Kirk may continue to induce a high rip current risk along portions of the U.S. East Coast for another day or so. These swells will affect Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and the Azores for a few more days. Kirk will move over western Europe by late Wednesday. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 41.7N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics