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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-10-07 04:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for 00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite appearance. Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at 315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-10-07 04:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070242 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt. Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72 hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-10-07 04:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 070242 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) 1(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) 1(42) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) X(36) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 16(53) X(53) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 19(61) X(61) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 22(75) 1(76) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 22(75) 1(76) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 17(69) 1(70) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 13(59) X(59) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 7(52) 1(53) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) X(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 2(42) X(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 2(48) X(48) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 66(71) 4(75) X(75) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 4(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 56(58) 6(64) X(64) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 77(82) 6(88) X(88) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 6(58) 1(59) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 4(37) X(37) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 70(72) 9(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 8(52) X(52) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 7(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 10(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 4(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 42(44) 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MERIDA MX 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 18(42) 1(43) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 28(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics