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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 27
2024-10-09 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 ...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER AND COULD INTENSIFY MORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 47.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 47.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual slowdown and turn northward and then north-northeastward is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid weakening by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 27
2024-10-09 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090236 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 49.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.6N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.1N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 15A
2024-10-09 01:59:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082359 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dzilam to Cancun Mexico * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 86.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 902 mb (26.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area in Mexico this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics