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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-21 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210857 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the warm waters of the Gulf of California. Around the time Lorena made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of 986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane. The satellite appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary images. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt based on the TAFB Dvorak classification. An ASCAT-C pass confirmed that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center. Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have not had a good handle on its future track. The models this cycle have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland Mexico tonight or Sunday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. If this model trend continues, additional shifts to the right might be needed. Based on this change, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of northwestern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and dissipation is likely to occur on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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