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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 31
2019-09-30 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300238 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 110NW. 34 KT...280NE 300SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 43.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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