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Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-09-19 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190253 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF WEAKENING. TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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