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Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-09-19 10:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE OFFSHORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/03. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING... THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND SHOW THE CENTER OF MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY INLAND NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS GENERAL IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND HWRF MODELS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF MANUEL COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LINGER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE UKMET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. WITH THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWING THE CYCLONE REMAINING INLAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST LONGER AND WEAKEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN HERE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 24.8N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 25.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 25.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 25.6N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 25.7N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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