je.st
news
Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-09-19 16:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191440 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED... AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE THAT TIME...RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200 UTC...WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY. THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
discussion
manuel
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||