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Hurricane MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2013-09-19 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190832 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 11 26 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 16 33 28 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 72 66 41 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 27 16 16 15 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 14 13 12 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 23 17(40) 5(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) LOS MOCHIS 50 2 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 29 7(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CULIACAN 50 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CULIACAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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