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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-24 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240841 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie continues to rapidly intensify. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold cloud tops surround the center. The inner core convective pattern is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of T6.0 from SAB. The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not easily forecast. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture and sea surface temperatures gradually lower. A more rapid weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar trend. The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The track forecast is fairly straight forward. A west-northwest to northwest motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow. These swells, which are likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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