je.st
news
Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-24 16:48:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241448 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours, with very cold convective tops surrounding the center. As a result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of T6.5/127 kt. Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU pass was 126 kt. Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is raised to 130 kt. The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has actually been moving more westward during the past few hours. The hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4 days. Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to turn north-northwestward by day 5. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2. Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like Marie get this strong. Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, slow weakening is likely until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no significant changes were required. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells will cause dangerous life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
marie
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||