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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-25 04:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250235 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the hurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern semicircle and become less symmetric. The eye has also become cloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled some in infrared imagery. A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an eyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at around 60 n mi radius at that time. The initial intensity is lowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from 0000 UTC. The ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of intensity in the short term for which there is little to no predictability. Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over relatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. Even though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie will be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a rapid spin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now indicated on day 4. Considering the current reduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than the previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the SHIPS model output. After wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier today, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/10. There have been no significant changes regarding the track forecast philosophy. Marie is expected to be steered on a west- northwestward to northwestward course during the next few days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming a remnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down. The latest track forecast is little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result of Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.6N 112.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.5N 114.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 21.4N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 27.0N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 30.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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